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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in remarks that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”